Sea level rise projected for Little Hunting Creek for 2040, Intermediate High scenario.
Coastal ecosystems are threatened by rapidly warming temperatures and sea level rise.
Little Hunting Creek has faced environmental challenges due to high residential, commercial and industrial development since the 1940s. By 2005, approximately 92% of the watershed was developed, with only 5% left untouched (Friends of Little Hunting Creek, About the Creek). Impervious surfaces like roads and parking lots cover 25% of the land. Compared to the undeveloped condition, impervious surfaces accelerate the rate at which the runoff from a given storm enters the creek and cause erosion and sedimentation. Due to global warming, storms have increased in intensity and frequency, resulting in more water runoff and flooding. Wetlands like Little Hunting Creek are threatened in their ability to filter water properly due to the increased volume and intensity of stormwater runoff.
Wetlands are unique from other ecosystems as they act as powerful filtration systems that protect water quality and serve as buffers from storms.Through processes like carbon sequestration, wetlands store vast amounts of organic carbon within the nutrient dense soil and plant life (EPA).
Riparian buffer zones are strips of protective vegetation along streams, rivers and wetlands that filter pollutants and sediments from runoff, improving the water quality and maintaining a healthy ecosystem. The protection of these transitional zones is vital for wildlife food and habitat, stabilizing soil, and even maintaining a cooler temperature by providing vegetative shade. A deficient buffer consists of monoculture lawn, minimal vegetation and is detrimental to these ecosystem functions. In the riparian buffer assessment for the 2004 Little Hunting Creek Watershed Management Plan, deficient buffer zones made up 52% of the total bank length. This causes the stream banks to be highly unstable, providing much less filtration and protection from pollutants in stormwater runoff. Loss of riparian buffers including the disappearance of native plant species impacts the health of the ecosystem including birds and wildlife. Preservation of stream buffers can be as easy as planting the buffer area with native plant species and removing invasive plants. You do need approval from the county – see https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/landdevelopment/removing-vegetation-resource-protection-area . A vegetated buffer composed of native species is an excellent stabilizer for erosion and an important filter for excess nitrogen and phosphorus, improving water quality and overall environment vitality.
Fairfax County’s stream water quality is assessed each year through the Stream Quality Index (SQI), a collection of samples from 40 randomly selected locations in the county (Stream Quality Assessment Program | Public Works and Environmental Services). In 17 of the last 21 years, the stream water quality and habitat condition of half or more of the locations have been rated poor or very poor. The SQI has shown indications that there is a lack of biological diversity due to elevated levels of nitrogen, phosphorus and pollutants. Acidification in coastal waters derives from multiple sources including fertilizer run-off and increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere leading to a higher concentration of carbon dioxide dissolved in the water supply.
As of July 2025, the global monthly concentration of CO2 was 426.81 ppm which is about 2.7 ppm more than last year (Trends in CO2 – NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory). As atmospheric CO2 levels rise, so does the global average temperature, since carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere, leading to a warming effect. The safe level of carbon dioxide is considered to be 350 ppm, but we are now well beyond this threshold, which is driving the increase in global temperatures, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. The DMV region has already seen record high temperatures, with 2024 being the warmest year in Washington DC at about 2.3 Fahrenheit degrees above average. Global sea level has risen approximately 9 inches since 1880 and the rise is accelerating.
The AdaptVA Sea Level Rise Projection Viewer (AdaptVA- Sea Level Rise Projection Viewer | MARISA) developed by Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) allows the user to display sea level projections for coastal Virginia. For the year 2100, even the lowest sea level rise scenario prediction shown considerable damage to Little Hunting Creek, with floods that expand into residential areas and parks. With an estimated 1-4 foot water depth increase, both animal species and humans will be displaced by the creek. Wetlands will be inundated.
An increase in sea level rise may result in higher salinity, which would change the species composition disrupting the freshwater ecosystem and intensifying coastal erosion.
Impacts of global warming and sea level rise are already occuring: we experience them in noticeably hotter temperatures and increasingly intense storms. It will be up to us to adapt to the changes that are coming, and to reduce emissions and take other steps to try to prevent more catastrophic levels of global warming and sea level rise.
Through collective and individual action, we can begin to address these climate challenges by educating others, advocating for policies that prioritize climate resilience and watershed protection, and investing in sustainable practices at home. Community engagement in cleanups of Little Hunting Creek has yielded impressive results. Volunteers with Friends of Little Hunting Creek have removed thousands of pounds of trash over two decades, which has significantly reduced the litter problem in Little Hunting Creek. This achievement proves our ability to act collectively to tackle a daunting problem and make a difference. Picking up a single piece of trash is a small but symbolic step toward encouraging collective action. These small actions can ripple outward, inspiring others and contributing to the momentum needed for larger, systemic change. Although the problem is much larger, individual actions to address climate change—by planting a tree, reducing food waste and by supporting sustainable local businesses — similarly add up to make a difference.
Sources:
Category 2 | NHC Storm Surge Risk Maps
Ribbon Cut on Stream ‘Restoration’ at Little Hunting Creek and Fairchild
Full article: Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?
Fairfax County Department of Public Works and Environmental Services. Little Hunting Creek Watershed Management Plan – Chapter 2, Part 1. February 2005. Available at: https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/publicworks/sites/publicworks/files/Assets/images/stormwater/watersheds/littlehuntingcreek/05_lh_wmp_ch2_p1_ada.pdf
Friends of Little Hunting Creek. About the Creek – Condition of the Watershed. Available at: https://friendsoflittlehuntingcreek.org/about-the-creek/
Stream Quality Assessment Program | Public Works and Environmental Services
Trends in CO2 – NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
